Some chance of rain ahead, but not NJ’s soaking needs

The essential

Almost the same story, different day here. The Garden State is parched, with nearly the entire state experiencing a rainfall deficit for the past month or so. So we could use a healthy dip right now. No dice though – there are no washout days in the forecast.

We’ll talk about a few sporadic chances of rain throughout the weekend. High temperatures will generally remain steady in the 80s. Humidity will increase from moderate to low to high.

And then the long term forecast shows another big push of heat and humidity next week. We might get our first glimpse of the “dangerous heat” of the season. The second half of July promises to be rather hot.

Thursday

We start the day with a stationary front parked along the NJ coast. This border will keep lingering clouds around the southern and eastern edges of the state. The south coast also experiences thicker, more humid air.

It’s also possible to take a one-time shower somewhere in New Jersey at any time of the day. (Each forecast model paints a different picture of potential raindrop timing and geography, so I can’t get more specific than that.) There might even be a quick downpour at some point. (Some models go up to one inch of total precipitation.). But keep in mind: Whatever forms it takes will be isolated and the vast majority of the state will remain completely dry Thursday.

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Look for sunny and cloudy periods. (The further inland you go, the brighter the sky will remain.) High temperatures will reach the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. It’s still slightly above normal for mid-July.

Thursday night the humidity will start to drop a bit. So I’m willing to call it comfortable, with low temperatures in the mid 60s. Weather conditions will be mostly clear and calm.

Friday

Friday ticks all the boxes for a pleasant summer day. Fairly sunny skies. Seasonally warm temperatures, peaking in the mid 80s. Dry weather. And relatively low humidity.

Perfect for the beach and boardwalk, park and pool.

Saturday

Over the weekend, a few short waves will threaten with clouds and raindrops. But again, you’ll find plenty of pockets of pleasant summer weather along the way.

Saturday’s skies will range from partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Cloud cover will limit high temperatures to around the lower 80s. You will also notice an increase in humidity, as we dive into humid air.

And then I think we’ll see patchy to scattered rain showers in the afternoon through early evening.

Is everyone in the state going to get wet? No. Will it rain all day? No. Are we under fire from bad weather and/or floods? Not really. (Although there may be a few rumbles of thunder.)

Sunday

It still looks like the best chance of rain in the forecast. And it’s still not much.

Expect mostly cloudy skies and mid-80s on Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible from the beginning of the afternoon. Given the higher heat and humidity, there is a chance of severe weather and/or showers, so we’ll have to play the game “weather aware”.

For both days this weekend, we will present a more detailed timeline of rain versus no rain as it gets a little closer.

The long term forecast

Next week is hot. Monday’s highs will reach 90 degrees, with the possibility of thunderstorms late in the day. And then a widespread 90s will ensue for Tuesday and Wednesday at least.

In fact, next week might be our first venture into “dangerous heat” territory of the season. On Wednesday in particular, the heat index (the “feels like” or “apparent” temperature) can approach 100 degrees. This is usually the threshold for sounding the alarm of excessive heat.

The second half of July is looking hot overall, with over 90s and 100s on the way. It’s the season !

NJ WEATHER CENTER: Your forecast for 5 days and more

Dan Zarrow is chief meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook Where Twitter for the latest real-time weather forecasts and updates.

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